Top U.S. Stories

  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the Kansas City Fed’s symposium running August 27–29. Prediction-market traders put the odds that he even says “rate cut” at just 8%; instead, markets price roughly one-in-three odds of a September hike and 67.6% odds of a December hike.
    • Why it matters: The rate-cut era investors got used to may be over. A hawkish surprise would lift the dollar and pressure stocks and bonds; a dovish one would do the reverse.
  • Trump signs an executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America” after trade talks with Canada collapsed. U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on various Canadian goods took effect Aug. 22 with no USMCA carve-out, and Canada has retaliated with tariffs of up to 50%. Ottawa says it will not recognize the new name.
    • Why it matters: A symbolic escalation on top of a real tariff war raises costs across the tightly integrated North American supply chain — autos, steel, aluminum and agriculture most of all.
  • Meta agrees to a settlement of up to $17.1 billion with a coalition of state attorneys general over claims it designed Instagram to be addictive and harmful to minors. Meta will pay at least $12.1 billion over 10 years and add default daily time limits, an overnight-use block liftable only by a parent, and stronger age checks. It is the largest state consumer-protection settlement outside the 1990s tobacco deal.
  • Nvidia’s blowout quarter powered a tech rally. The chipmaker reported $2.22 adjusted EPS and $96.2 billion in revenue, up 106% year over year. It expects next-quarter revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 0.5 percentage points. The stock jumped about 8% Thursday, lifting other technology shares.
  • Nepal–Tibet flood disaster. A glacial collapse on the Nepal–China border has left at least 392 dead and about 1,500 missing as of Aug. 28; Nepal’s tourism board says 517 of the missing are foreign nationals, 178 of them Indian. Authorities warn a barrier lake could still burst.
  • Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack repeated her call for higher rates, saying recent inflation data show the Fed is still too far from its 2% goal.

Markets

U.S. stocks rose Thursday, Aug. 27: the Dow gained 0.2% to 53,569.44, the S&P 500 added 0.7% to 7,730.99, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.6% to 26,541.35, with tech the standout sector. The 30-year Treasury yield is near a 19-year high. WTI crude held in the high-$83s per barrel on Middle East supply risk. The dollar traded around ¥159, pushing toward ¥160, as the Bank of Japan signals it is edging toward another hike. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 130 points (0.2%) to 66,131.98, unable to hold an early Nvidia-driven bounce.

Stocks in Focus

  • Nvidia (NVDA): revenue reached $96.2 billion, and management guided to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the next quarter, with gross margin expected at 74.0%, plus or minus 0.5 percentage points.
  • Salesforce (CRM), CrowdStrike (CRWD): solid results revived buying in software and cybersecurity.
  • Meta (META): near-term legal overhang clears, but new time limits and age-check duties raise questions about engagement.
  • Trade-exposed names: U.S.–Canada tariff escalation keeps autos, metals, agriculture and the Canadian dollar in view.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Compass Insight

The through-line today is a market that no longer assumes rate relief is coming. Warsh steps to the podium with traders pricing hikes, not cuts, a 30-year yield near two-decade highs, and the most fractious FOMC in years. If his debut sounds hawkish, expect a firmer dollar and softer risk assets; if he leaves the door open to easing, the reverse. Layered on top is a live U.S.–Canada trade war that just turned symbolic with the “Lake America” order — tariffs of up to 50% both ways will keep upward pressure on North American production costs and, eventually, prices. For households, the near-term signal is the dollar-yen reaction tonight; the longer-term watch items are mortgage and borrowing costs in a world where the next Fed move could be up. Short term: watch the speech. Longer term: watch whether tariffs feed back into inflation.

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.