Top U.S. Stories

  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 28, saying inflation remains above the 2% target and the central bank would “have work to do” if it is not confident price growth is returning to target. He again declined to offer forward guidance, warning it creates a “hall of mirrors.” Market-implied odds of a September rate hike jumped to roughly 60% from about 35% before the speech (CNBC, Yahoo Finance). Why it matters: Under a new chair, the Fed is leaning toward higher-for-longer — or higher — which lifts the dollar, pressures long-duration stocks, and raises borrowing costs for mortgages and businesses.
  • President Trump announced a deal with Venezuela that he called “the biggest oil deal in world history,” giving the U.S. a 55% effective stake in the output of a new company controlling more than 65 billion barrels of reserves, with proceeds meant in part to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Venezuela is reportedly weighing an exit from OPEC (CNBC, NPR). Why it matters: More long-run crude supply weighed on oil prices last week and could feed slowly into lower gasoline and utility costs — though a stronger dollar blunts some of that relief.
  • Nvidia’s May–July quarter beat expectations, with revenue of $96.2 billion (up 106% year over year) and an outlook of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the current quarter. CEO Jensen Huang projected approximately 70% growth in total company revenue in fiscal 2028 (NVIDIA earnings-call transcript).
  • Dolly Parton, the country music icon and philanthropist, died on Aug. 25 at age 80 (NPR).
  • The Trump administration’s plan to temporarily waive higher tariffs on beef imports drew backlash from U.S. cattle ranchers, who say it undercuts domestic producers.

Markets

U.S. stocks slipped Friday as investors digested Warsh’s remarks. The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 (-0.25%), the Dow at 53,559.99 (-9.45, -0.02%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42 (-0.52%). All three still posted gains for the week. WTI crude settled near $83 a barrel, down about 4–5% on the week on the Venezuela supply outlook and reports of easing Strait of Hormuz tensions. The dollar strengthened, pushing the yen back toward 159–160 per dollar. The federal funds target range stands at 3.50%–3.75%.

U.S. equity and oil figures are the Aug. 28 (Friday) New York close. USD/JPY via frankfurter API, ECB reference date Aug. 28.

Stocks in Focus

  • Oil majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips): capped by the Venezuela deal and a soft week for crude.
  • Nvidia and semiconductors: a solid report, but higher-for-longer rate fears hit long-duration tech, and the Nasdaq led Friday’s decline.
  • Regional banks and homebuilders: rate-sensitive groups pressured by the jump in hike expectations.

Compass Insight

The through-line into the new week is a Federal Reserve that, under Chair Warsh, has swapped guidance for a blunt “inflation first” message. That reset the odds: a September hike is now a coin flip rather than a tail risk, and money has rotated back into the dollar. For households, the near-term signal is that mortgage rates and other borrowing costs are unlikely to ease soon, even with crude falling — a firmer dollar offsets part of the pump-price benefit. The swing factor is the Sept. 4 U.S. jobs report: a firm number hardens the hike case and keeps the yen weak, while a soft one revives the “hold” scenario. Longer term, watch two things — how much extra Venezuelan crude actually reaches the market, and whether the Bank of Japan is forced to move on a too-weak yen despite Tokyo inflation running below 2%. Neither calls for hasty positioning; both are worth monitoring.

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.