Oil whipsaws, Tokyo stocks slide 1,259 points while Wall Street rebounds — September 12, 2026

Top U.S. Stories

• August CPI: headline in line, core hotter than expected. The August Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, broadly in line with expectations. But core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% on the month, 0.1 point above the 0.2% estimate. Why it matters: Markets had feared a much hotter number; avoiding that shock was a relief. But the firmer core reading pushed the odds of a Fed hike next week from roughly 70% to about 90%, according to CME FedWatch.
• Stocks rebound on Friday. The Dow rose 509.19 points to 52,573.29, the S&P 500 gained 65.28 points to 7,656.98, and the Nasdaq added 251.31 points to 26,333.04, with the S&P 500 snapping a four-day losing streak even as rate-hike odds jumped. Why it matters: Stocks rallied on relief that inflation stayed close to expectations, while a rate hike next week became the market’s base case.
• Oil falls back after a sharp weekly surge. Brent crude settled down 2.8% at $104.61 a barrel Friday, still up 8.7% for the week; WTI fell 2.4% to $100.05. The pullback followed reports that Iran and Gulf states will hold talks in Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.
• FOMC decision due Wednesday, Sept. 16. With rate-hike odds now near 90%, a quarter-point increase looks like the base case, though the meeting is still days away.

Compass Insight

Two things are true at once this week: inflation stayed near expectations, and a Fed rate hike next week became the market’s base case. Core CPI’s modest upside surprise was enough to push hike odds from about 70% to roughly 90%, even as stocks rallied — investors seemed more relieved that headline inflation didn’t spike than worried about one more quarter-point move. Separately, oil stopped moving in only one direction: Brent posted an 8.7% weekly gain on Iran-related supply fears, then gave back some of it Friday on news that Iran and Gulf states plan talks in Oman over Hormuz shipping. For households, that matters because oil is still elevated enough to keep pressure on gasoline and utility bills, and a Fed hike would add to borrowing costs on top of that. Near term, watch Wednesday’s Fed decision itself, not just the odds. Over the medium term, watch whether the Oman talks produce anything concrete — a real de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would matter far more for the inflation outlook than any single week’s price swing. This is a map of what to watch, not investment advice.

Markets

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 sold off sharply Friday, closing down 1,259.61 points (1.93%) at 64,011.34 after briefly falling more than 1,600 points intraday on worries about high oil prices and rising rates. By contrast, U.S. stocks reversed course later Friday as the CPI report and a retreat in crude eased inflation fears: the Dow gained 509.19 points, the S&P 500 rose 65.28 points, and the Nasdaq added 251.31 points. Brent crude ended the week at $104.61 (down 2.8% on the day, up 8.7% on the week), while WTI settled near $100.05. The dollar traded around 154.04 yen (ECB reference, Sept. 11).

Stocks in Focus

• Japanese insurers, shipping companies and transportation-equipment makers were among the few sectors that finished higher during Tokyo’s broad selloff.
• Energy producers continue to benefit from crude prices holding above $100 a barrel even after Friday’s pullback.
• Airlines and freight carriers face a continued headwind from elevated fuel costs while oil stays in triple digits.

※This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.

Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.