Top U.S. Stories

  • September payrolls rise just 29,000: The economy added far fewer jobs than expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, the last full jobs picture before the November midterms. Why it matters: Traders slashed the odds of an October Fed rate hike to roughly 16% from 64% a week earlier.
  • G7 agrees to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel: The IEA-coordinated release runs over four months, front-loaded with diesel in the first 20 days, after weeks of pressure from the Trump administration (G7 leaders’ statement). Why it matters: U.S. diesel averaged about $6.37 a gallon on the day of the announcement; relief at the pump depends on how fast supply arrives.
  • Third carrier group heads to the Middle East: The U.S. military is sending roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines aboard a carrier strike group and other ships, and President Trump told Time that renewed large-scale strikes were “possible” after the midterms (AP). Why it matters: The geopolitical premium in oil is not going away, even with reserve releases.
  • Treasury yields stay stubborn: The 10-year yield dipped after the jobs data but ended near 5.281%, keeping borrowing costs elevated.
  • Nike sinks on weak sales: The company missed revenue estimates, reported a 26% sales drop in Greater China and announced a restructuring with layoffs (CNBC).

Compass Insight

Friday was a classic “bad news is good news” session. A sharp slowdown in hiring took an October Fed hike largely off the table, and stocks rallied, led by tech. But the bond market told a more cautious story: the 10-year yield bounced back above 5.2% by the close. The economy appears to be cooling while energy keeps inflation sticky — an uncomfortable mix that rewards patience over chasing rallies. In the short term, watch upcoming inflation data and whether the G7 release actually pulls diesel prices lower. Over the longer run, the U.S.-Iran standoff after the midterms and the path of long-term yields are the two forces most likely to set the tone for stocks, mortgages and household budgets.

Markets

  • Dow: 51,176.96, +250.40 (+0.49%)
  • S&P 500: 7,722.72, +56.27 (+0.73%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 27,190.86, +319.27 (+1.19%)
  • WTI crude: $91.11, -$1.76 (-1.90%); Brent roughly flat at $102.25
  • USD/JPY: 157.67 (ECB reference rate, Oct. 2)

For the week, the Nasdaq finished higher while the Dow and S&P 500 posted losses.

Stocks in Focus

  • Nvidia: Up more than 2% and touched a record intraday high as fading hike bets lifted tech.
  • Nike: Fell after its revenue miss, a weak full-year outlook and new restructuring plans.

Sources:

Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.