Oil above $100 after Russia and Gulf attacks — October 19, 2026

Top U.S. Stories

• Trump defends Russia sanctions pause. President Trump said he suspended several Russia sanctions so as not to drive Moscow “away from the bargaining table,” while Ukraine’s Zelensky called siding with Putin a “historic mistake.” Why it matters: Washington and Europe are now visibly split on Russia policy, and the move is tied to Trump’s push to bring Russian diesel to market and ease fuel prices.
• Oil stays above $100. In Sunday evening trading, WTI crude stood at $101.15 a barrel and Brent at $108.82 after Ukrainian drones hit oil facilities in St. Petersburg and two tankers were attacked off Saudi Arabia. Why it matters: Pricier fuel keeps inflation sticky right before the Fed meets on Oct. 27–28.
• Deficit near $2 trillion. The Treasury reported a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.992 trillion, about 12% higher than the prior year. It is the third-largest on record. Why it matters: Heavy borrowing adds upward pressure on long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates.
• Bessent warns Zelensky over Starlink. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Zelensky to “be very careful” about claims that the U.S. is throttling Starlink in Ukraine.
• Diesel tax relief for farmers. The administration deferred federal diesel taxes to help farmers, but states are issuing warnings about the impact.

Compass Insight

The weekend’s news all points the same way: less oil getting to market. Ukraine struck Russian fuel terminals, attacks on Gulf shipping continued, and crude is holding above $100 even as Washington says it wants lower fuel prices. That pressure feeds straight into inflation. September CPI ran at 3.7%, and higher inflation makes it harder for rates to come down, which is the main threat to debt-funded AI spending. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has now fallen for eight sessions in a row. In the short term, watch whether Netflix and Tesla earnings this week can calm the tech selloff. Over the longer run, the Fed’s Oct. 27–28 decision and whether energy supply disruptions ease will set the tone into the Nov. 3 midterms.

Markets

Friday, Oct. 16 closes: the Dow fell 0.34% to 52,002.41, the S&P 500 dropped 1.09% to 7,659.44, and the Nasdaq slid 2.15% to 26,140.03. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 3.83%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei rose 1.39% to 65,324.29 before the U.S. chip selloff. The dollar was at ¥158.02 (ECB reference rate, Oct. 16).

Stocks in Focus

• Semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight session as investors questioned the data-center spending boom.
• CoreWeave: credit default swaps on its debt hit distress levels, making it a focal point for worries about AI debt.
• Berkshire Hathaway: shares went against the selloff and reached their highest level since Buffett announced he would step down as CEO.