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  • Stocks closed higher Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77, the Dow added 0.28% to 52,361.58 and the Nasdaq gained 0.82% to 26,169.38, with Nvidia among the strongest contributors after Anthropic published its IPO prospectus.

    Why it matters: Anthropic’s filing showed rapid revenue growth, while Nvidia rose 2.4%. Investors remain worried about the cost of funding AI spending, so the session showed how quickly sentiment can swing.

  • The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting Tuesday, with a decision Wednesday. Markets widely expect rates to hold, and the dates are listed on the Fed’s official calendar, though some analysts expect a hawkish tone after hotter inflation data.

    Why it matters: With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, any hint that rates stay higher for longer would pressure mortgages, stocks and the dollar’s exchange rate.

  • Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings Wednesday, with investors watching AI spending closely.

  • President Trump said he will soon decide whether to “make a deal” with Iran or “finish it off”, keeping the option of strikes open while indirect talks continue.

    Why it matters: The Iran conflict is keeping oil above $100 a barrel, which feeds into gasoline prices and inflation worldwide.

  • Delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian leaders in Tehran in an effort to head off renewed fighting; the countries agreed to continue talks but announced no date or venue.

Compass Insight

Monday’s session was a tug-of-war between AI optimism and the weight of expensive oil. In Tokyo, heavyweight AI and chip stocks were sold after Friday’s Wall Street decline, and the Nikkei fell for a third straight day. In New York, the same theme flipped into a rally on the Anthropic filing. For households, the transmission channels are oil and rates: crude near $100 keeps fuel and shipping costs elevated, while a 10-year yield near 5% supports the dollar and can raise import costs elsewhere. In the short run, watch the Fed’s tone on Wednesday and whether Alphabet and Microsoft justify their AI budgets. Over the longer run, the question is whether AI investment pays off fast enough to offset higher borrowing costs, and whether Middle East diplomacy eases oil supply fears.

Markets

Stocks in Focus

  • AI stocks (including Nvidia): Nvidia rose 2.4% after Anthropic’s public filing. The company’s SEC filing showed about $16.29 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, while volatility persisted across the sector.

Not investment advice; this is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.