Top U.S. Stories

  • More tankers struck near the Strait of Hormuz: Two oil tankers were hit by “unidentified projectiles,” according to a British maritime agency; one suffered a small fire and blackout, with no casualties reported (Malay Mail). Iran is reportedly preparing for a “major round of fighting” as a third U.S. carrier strike group heads toward the region (The National / AP). Why it matters: Even after the G7’s 100-million-barrel reserve release, attacks on shipping keep a risk premium in oil and in U.S. fuel prices.
  • Supreme Court opens its term with a landmark climate case: On Monday, Oct. 5, the justices hear Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, which asks whether federal law blocks state-law damage claims over greenhouse-gas emissions (U.S. Supreme Court). Justice Alito has recused himself. Why it matters: The ruling could decide the fate of dozens of similar suits against oil companies nationwide.
  • Fed hike odds collapse after weak jobs report: The probability of an October rate hike fell to about 14%, down from roughly 70% early in the week, per CME FedWatch (CNBC). Why it matters: Wednesday’s Fed minutes will show how many officials still lean toward tightening.
  • Quiet data week before earnings season: ISM services (Monday) and Fed minutes (Wednesday) lead the calendar, with PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta Air Lines on Friday; September CPI is due Oct. 14 (CNBC).
  • North Korea fires a ballistic missile: Pyongyang launched a missile toward the Sea of Japan on Saturday morning and called it an “intermediate-range strategic missile” drill (Jiji Press).

Compass Insight

The week’s message was mixed. Stocks cheered a cooling job market because it pushed a Fed hike off the table, yet the weekend brought a fresh reminder of why inflation may stay sticky: attacks on tankers near Hormuz and a military buildup around Iran. The G7 reserve release is a cushion, not a cure, and Brent is still above $100. For households heading into heating season, that matters more than any single jobs number. In the short term, watch Monday’s oil open, Wednesday’s Fed minutes and the ISM prices-paid gauge. Over the longer run, the U.S.-Iran standoff around the midterms and stubbornly high long-term yields remain the two forces most likely to shape mortgages, gas prices and portfolios.

Markets

Week ended Friday, Oct. 2 (closing data; change versus Sept. 25 close):

  • Dow: 51,176.96, -651.66 (-1.26%)
  • S&P 500: 7,722.72, -20.69 (-0.27%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 27,190.86, +122.14 (+0.45%)
  • WTI crude: $91.11, -$1.30 (-1.41%); Brent $102.25, -$2.07 (-1.98%)
  • USD/JPY: 157.67 (ECB reference rate, Oct. 2)

Stocks in Focus

  • Tech and AI names led the Nasdaq to the only weekly gain among the major indexes as rate-hike fears faded.
  • Nike slid after hours following its quarterly report as Greater China sales fell 26% on a currency-neutral basis and full-year guidance disappointed; it also outlined further role reductions (CNBC).

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.