Top U.S. Stories

  • Oil jumps on Saudi attacks. Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.65 a barrel and WTI gained 2% to $93.74 — the highest since Sept. 15 — as weekend Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia revived supply fears. Why it matters: Higher crude feeds straight into gasoline and diesel prices just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, undercutting the White House push to lower fuel costs.
  • Trump still weighing Yemen strikes. After the deadly attack on Riyadh’s airport, Trump said the U.S. may join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. The airport has stayed closed since Saturday after repeated strikes; no U.S. strike decision had been announced as of Monday. Why it matters: Direct U.S. involvement would widen a conflict that already sits on top of the world’s most important oil routes.
  • Energy ceasefire under strain. Zelenskyy said Russia struck energy sites, including a power plant in Kharkiv, after Trump announced the truce, and urged Washington to enforce it.
  • Stocks stall near records. The Dow rose for a third day while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped, dragged by a 3.9% drop in Micron.
  • Bank earnings kick off today. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America the next day. Why it matters: Bank stocks have fallen about 9% in a month on rising yields; results will show how higher rates are hitting borrowers and deal-making.
  • Nobel for New Keynesian builders. Stanford’s Robert Hall and Columbia’s Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel for the microeconomic foundations of stabilization policy.

Compass Insight

Monday’s tape told a simple story: oil up, tech down, indexes going nowhere. Energy is once again setting the tone, and the market is more worried about the routes oil travels than about new supply promises — Trump’s Russian diesel deal and the energy truce did little to cap crude. That combination keeps inflation risk alive at a moment when the Fed has already hiked once and long-term yields remain elevated.

In the short run, watch bank earnings and this week’s CPI: a hot inflation print could revive rate-hike bets and push the dollar higher. Over the longer run, the key questions are whether Washington is drawn into Yemen and whether the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire actually holds. Those two answers will likely decide where oil’s ceiling sits heading into winter.

Markets

Index / Asset Close (Oct. 12) Change
Dow 51,850.55 +195.60 (+0.4%)
S&P 500 7,807.24 -4.30 (-0.1%)
Nasdaq 27,245.90 -120.27 (-0.4%)
Brent $106.65 +$1.93 (+1.8%)
WTI $93.74 +$1.89 (+2.0%)
USD/JPY 158.60 (ECB ref., Oct. 12) +0.35

Tokyo was closed Monday for Sports Day; Nikkei 225 night futures ended 500 yen lower at 68,970.

Stocks in Focus

  • Micron (MU): Fell 3.9%, while AMD, Broadcom and Nvidia also declined as large semiconductor stocks weighed on the Nasdaq.
  • Big banks: JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo report today after a rough month for the group.

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.