Top U.S. Stories

  • Oil reacts to Gulf attack claims. The thinly traded, expiring November WTI contract settled at $103.66 a barrel, up 2.22%, after Yemen’s Houthis claimed they hit an Aramco facility in Yanbu, two Saudi airports and a military base. The claims have not been independently confirmed. The more actively traded December WTI contract fell 0.5% to $98.54, while Brent slipped 0.28% to $109.55. Why it matters: A sustained rise in fuel costs would keep inflation sticky and make rate cuts harder to justify.
  • Tech rebounds after a rough week. The Nasdaq rose 1.11% to 26,430.89 and the S&P 500 gained 0.41%, while the Dow slipped 0.07%. Memory chipmakers led after a BofA note said valuations had “bottomed out.”
  • Treasury yields keep rising. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.14% from 5.09%, while the dollar rose to 158.50 yen. Why it matters: A 10-year yield above 5% feeds directly into mortgage and business borrowing costs. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at next week’s meeting.
  • Mixed messages on Russia sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the only thing lifted was the diesel embargo, not sanctions, while President Trump defended the waiver as a way to keep Moscow at the negotiating table.
  • Homebuilder mood sours. The NAHB housing market index fell short of forecasts at 29 versus an expected 31 in October.

Compass Insight

Monday showed that Gulf supply scares can add to inflation concerns while Treasury yields are already high. At 5.14%, the 10-year yield is a real headwind for housing, as the weak homebuilder survey suggests. Tech’s bounce is encouraging, but it came after the Nasdaq’s worst week since June, so it looks more like relief than a new trend. In the short term, watch for independent damage reports from Saudi Arabia and the Fed’s meeting next week. Over the longer run, the key question is whether heavy AI spending, including at debt-funded firms like CoreWeave, can earn returns that justify today’s borrowing costs.

Markets

  • Dow 51,966.03 (-0.07%) / S&P 500 7,690.73 (+0.41%) / Nasdaq 26,430.89 (+1.11%) — AP
  • WTI November (expires Oct. 20) $103.66 (+2.22%) / WTI December $98.54 (-0.5%) / Brent $109.55 (-0.28%) — Reuters via UOL
  • Nikkei 225 closed at 64,916.70, down 0.62%, tracking Friday’s U.S. chip sell-off.
  • USD/JPY 158.50 in New York; the ECB reference rate was 158.24 (Oct. 19).

Stocks in Focus

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.


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