Top U.S. Stories

  • Brazil’s election is headed to an October 25 runoff. With 64.81% of polling sections counted, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro had 49.58% of valid votes to President Lula’s 42.25%, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (official TSE results). Neither had a majority, and a results projection showed the race heading to the October 25 runoff (Reuters). The figures are the latest TSE partial count available as of 7:50 a.m. Tokyo time. Why it matters: Three more weeks of uncertainty in Latin America’s largest economy can move the real, Brazilian stocks and broader emerging-market sentiment.
  • More tankers hit near Hormuz as Iran restates its terms. At least two vessels were struck over the weekend near Oman and Iran. Iran’s parliament speaker said the strait will not reopen unless the U.S. halts its “aggression,” lifts the naval blockade of Iranian ports and releases Iranian assets (AP). The U.S. says roughly 9,000 personnel aboard a group of ships are heading to the region, which could have three carriers by late October (AP). Why it matters: Brent is still above $100 a barrel, keeping pressure on gasoline and heating costs heading into winter.
  • The Supreme Court opens its new term today. The first argument is Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, a climate-liability case against oil companies (Supreme Court calendar). The term also includes cases on guns, religious liberty and election law (Federalist Society).
  • A soft jobs report cooled Fed hike talk. September payrolls rose just 29,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.2% (Bureau of Labor Statistics), while the 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.28% (AP). Why it matters: Slower hiring eases the case for another rate hike, but high long-term yields still keep mortgage and borrowing costs elevated.
  • A U.S. Marine was arrested in a killing in Okinawa. Japanese police arrested a 20-year-old lance corporal based at Futenma on suspicion of robbery-murder after a woman was found dead in a Naha hotel; he denies the charge (Jiji Press).

Compass Insight

The common thread this weekend is political uncertainty arriving all at once: Brazil faces a three-week runoff, Spain’s prime minister is weighing a snap election, and Washington’s standoff with Tehran drags on ahead of the midterms. Markets usually dislike the waiting period more than any particular outcome, which tends to show up first in currencies and oil. In the short term, watch the ISM services index today, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s speech on Tuesday and this week’s FOMC minutes. Over the longer run, the key tension is that stocks keep rising while long-term yields stay above 5% — a gap that cannot last forever. How Brazil’s runoff and the Hormuz standoff resolve will help decide which side gives way.

Markets

As of Friday’s close (Oct. 2), the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.49% to 51,176.96 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.19% to 27,190.86. Oil futures opened the week slightly higher early Monday Tokyo time: WTI at $91.31 and Brent at $102.95. The dollar stood at 157.67 yen (ECB reference rate, Oct. 2). Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.94% to 68,309.46 on Friday after two strong sessions.

Stocks in Focus

  • Tesla: The company reported 486,532 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter (Tesla Investor Relations).
  • Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Alphabet: rate-sensitive tech led Friday’s gains as hike expectations faded (AP).
  • Brazilian assets: before the vote, Bolsonaro’s rise in polls had lifted the Ibovespa and pushed demand for hedges against a weaker real to the lowest since 2020 (Bloomberg).

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Auto-generated and AI-written. Not investment advice.